Oct 12, 2008

Barack has met the threshold. Once Reagan met the threshold, people wanted to get rid of Carter and they did in a landslide. This is going to turn into a landslide.

Ed Rollins, political adviser to Ronald Reagan, on a possible Obama electoral landslide. Rollins would know, he worked on Reagan’s campaign. This didn’t seem possible back in January, but now it seems likely.
(via election08)

I’m certain that Obama will win, but I don’t think there’s any possibility of a landslide.  Two reasons…

First, as I write this, McCain and Palin are changing tactics, with just enough time to spare.

They’ve sewn the seeds of xenophobic suspicion and outright fear.  Now they’re consolidating their position by targeting knee-jerk “fiscal conservatives” (that is, people against federal spending) and anti-abortionists.  Both populations are their natural supporters, who, it has been shown, can really turn out the vote when they see it as a battle in the ongoing culture war. (And it is this war that ensures that no national election, I believe, can be a landslide in early-21st century America.)

Second, McCain has shown that he’s willing to ditch the integrity and the “issues” he once held dear and launch nasty personal attacks.  He’s hired the very people who used these dirty tactics so effectively against him in 2000.  He’ll do whatever he think he needs to do to win.

Like our roads and levees, the electoral infrastructure in this nation is in a state of disrepair, and I believe that people on McCain’s team have illegally and pseudo-legally subverted it in the past two presidential elections.  I’m certain they’ll try to do it again, with McCain’s tacit blessing.

All I can say is that Obama has the best-organized campaign in the history of the world — yes, the world — and they’re ready for voter intimidation and other tomfoolery on Nov. 4th.  Unfortunately, many names have already been struck from the rolls, other voters have been warned off of voting, etc, but I think their numbers aren’t great enough to impact the election.  What can make a difference is 8-hour lines at the polls in Ohio, preventing working people from voting — to name just one example.

Far from a landslide, I predict a late, late night, and possibly, certified results not confirmed until well into the next day, because of the inevitable voting “irregularities.”

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